GBN is a think tank located in California with the specialty of scenario-planning. They consider several ways that an industry or a government or any component of society might develop. The emphasis is on "several" because nobody can predict the future with any accuracy. A smart government, company or individual is prepared for a variety of possible futures.
For instance, GBN came up with four possible futures for how technology impacts international development (this is from a report they did for the Rockefeller Foundation--if you're a science fiction writer this might be inspirational):
LOCK STEP: A world of tighter top-down government control, with limited innovation and growing citizen pushback.
CLEVER TOGETHER: A world in which highly coordinated and successful strategies emerge for addressing both urgent and entrenched worldwide issues.
HACK ATTACK: An economically unstable and shock-prone world in which governments weaken, criminals thrive, and dangerous innovations emerge.
SMART SCRAMBLE: A economically depressed world in which individuals and communities develop localized, makeshift solutions to a growing set of problems.
This isn't just for science fiction writers, anybody can use this method to explore a story before deciding which way to go. Often we start with a general idea and lock in too early. By deciding to explore at least 3 or 4 possible directions for our story we may come up with something more interesting.
For instance, let's say that I start with the idea of a revenge story. A man's son is killed by a hit-and-run driver and he plots to get revenge. One direction is that he kills the driver.
What alternative scenarios come to mind for after he's done it?
* Maybe he feels good about it and decides to right other wrongs by becoming a vigilante in other cases
* Maybe he feels guilty and seeks redemption
* Maybe he finds out that there was a mistake--the man he killed wasn't the driver, he was taking the rap for someone else
One way to explore this is with a kind of mind map in which each branch represents a possible development and then each of those branches out in further options, so that you end up with a large number of possibilities.
This is especially good for writers (like me) who love characters and dialogue and find plotting more challenging. We tend to lock into a story too quickly sometimes because we're itching to get to the part we enjoy more. By doing that, we may miss some great story opportunities--and scenario planning offers us a useful tool.
(For lots of practical advice on how to create great stories and characters, see my book, "Your Writing Coach," available from Amazon and other online and offline booksellers.)
